Tag: Professional Lax
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PLL Betting: Week 1
Game 1:
Redwoods -1.5 vs Cannons +1.5
Consensus: The Woods are one of the strongest teams in the PLL over the last two years. It is easy to see why as they have a suffocating defense, and now a revamped offense with the addition of Rob Pannell and the return of Jules Heningburg. Their one true weakness has been getting possessions. They were dismal at the stripe last year, winning only 36.15% of face-offs and compounded that issue with only scooping up 44.41% of available ground balls in their games. Drafting TD Ierlan, the NCAA career leader in both face-offs won and ground balls, should assuage many of those issues, especially at the dot. Woods look to be one of the most complete teams on paper and have continuity on their side vs the expansion Cannons.
Dissent: The Cannons bring in a championship pedigree from the MLL with several players coming over and sticking with the Boom Squad. This includes possibly the best SSDM in the world in Zach Goodrich and their goalie Nick Marrocco. Coach Sean Quirk is clearly comfortable with these guys and they add in some excellent veteran leadership in Paul Rabil and Brodie Merrill. All of this could help the Cannons gel together quickly. It also doesn’t hurt that they have, arguably, the best player in the world in Lyle Thompson suiting up for them. Finally (and perhaps not very importantly), Chris Hogan has a pretty solid history at Gillette Stadium. If the Cannons can fire on all cylinders early – and the Redwoods, a notoriously slow starting team, continue to have trouble finding the back of the net as they did at times in the bubble, then an upset could be on the horizon.
My Final Prediction: Redwoods offense finally starts hot against a new team and the Woods stacked defense does enough to slow Thompson down in his PLL debut. Final: 13-9 Redwoods.
Favorite Futures Bet: Rob Pannell to finish with the most points in the league. It’s a long-shot and it pays like one but RP3 should bounce back after a sub-par bubble. He’s had a full off-season to get accustomed to the Woods’ offense and scheme and has goal-scorers aplenty. If the Redwoods can get enough possessions he’s got the potential to put up 4 points per game easily.
Game 2:
Whipsnakes -2.5 vs Chaos +2.5
Consensus: The crew at Lettuce Discuss are split on this game but the overwhelming favorite has to be betting on the Whips. The two-time defending champs return the vast majority of the core from their bubble championship and added some excellent pieces over the off-season as well. Chris Aslanian and Ryan Tierney join an already stacked attack unit and Connor Kirst helps round out their midfield. With Kirst and former-MVP, Matt Rambo, the Thicc Snakes will be tough to match-up with from a physicality stand-point. And then you have to remember last year’s MVP, Zed Williams is still on this team. Choosing who gets a long-pole will be a pick-your-poison for the Chaos defense. Vegas obviously respects the Whips placing them as overwhelming favorites to three-peat at +160 and the only team over the weekend to have a -2.5 line.
Dissent: The Chaos had a tough bubble until it was tourney time and they turned it on. Honorary Team Canada ran their hot-streak all the way to the championship and actually jumped out to a lead on the Whipsnakes but just couldn’t hold on. Over the off-season the Chaos made some big moves. They traded for Ian MacKay to bolster their midfield, drafted the top face-off man in the Entry Draft in Max Adler, and also took the #1 goal-scorer in NCAA history: Mac O’Keefe in the college draft. Adler should be able to hold up much better against Joe Nardella than Thomas Kelly and the added firepower of O’Keefe to a unit that already includes Josh Byrne could be nasty. Chaos defense should also be quite strong with Jack Rowlett, Jarrod Neumann, and one of the best goalies in the world, Blaze Riorden. It’ll be an uphill battle but Chaos have the men to challenge the Whips and get revenge.
My Final Prediction: Whipsnakes continue their dominant run and eke out a hard-fought victory. Coach Andy Towers will have the Chaos fired-up and ready from the jump. I expect the Chaos to once again jump out to an early lead before the Snakes settle in and get the W. A late run by the Chaos will have them cover but that won’t be much of a consolation for the 2020 runner-ups. Final: 12-10 Whipsnakes
Favorite Futures Bet: Mac O’Keefe to lead league in 2-point goals. The Chaos only had three 2-pointers for the entire bubble and I expect that to be more of a point of emphasis. O’Keefe certainly showed range from 15+ throughout college and if training camp reports are to be believed, that range is popping up consistently in the pros as well. He’s currently tied for third in the odds for DraftKings, but it’s paying out at +1200.
Game 3:
Archers -1.5 vs Atlas +1.5
Consensus: The only game where all four here at Lettuce Discuss were aligned. The Archers were one of the best teams in the bubble last year and battled the Whips hard for the number 1 seed. They ended up losing to the Chaos in the semi-finals, but should still be considered one of the top tier teams in the league heading into this season. The strength of the Archers has always been their offense; especially with Grant Ament, Will Manny, Marcus Holmann, and Tom Schreiber all returning. They bolster this grouping with their off-season trade for Connor Fields, one of the most creative offensive players in the world. However, most of their off-season was spent on upgrading the other side of the ball. Graeme Hossack is an all-world defender who they nabbed in the first round of the Entry Draft. They followed that pick up later in same draft by choosing fellow defenseman, Warren Jeffrey and then rounded out their defense by selecting the top LSM in college, Jarred Conners, with the 5th overall pick in the College Draft. Meanwhile, the Atlas proceeded to hit the reset button and commence the first ever rebuild in PLL history.
Dissent: No one chose the Atlas in this game but there is still a lot of talent on the team. They were able to add Dan Bucaro in the Entry Draft, and got some really nice pieces in the College Draft. Coach Ben Rubeor is also extremely confident in Eric Law at the X and thus moved on from Rob Pannell and chose to select Jeff Teat over Duke’s Michael Sowers. Teat, however, won’t be able to make his debut this weekend as he’s out for travel restriction reasons. A point in the Bulls favor is at the face-off. The strip is the number one concern for the Archers heading into the season and the Atlas return all-world FOGO, Trevor Baptiste. Baptise could take over this game and limit the Archers possessions. He’ll need to for the Atlas to have a chance.
My Final Prediction: Out of all the games, this is the one I would feel most confident laying money down on. Archers should be considered more than a 1.5 favorite against this Atlas squad. In the PLL close games seem to be the norm, but the difference in elite talent up and down the rosters is quite noticeable. Tucker Durkin and Cade Van Raaphorst will make life difficult for the Archers but they won’t be able to keep them down for an entire game. Final: 16-10 Archers
Favorite Futures Bet: Archers to win it all at +475. It will be tough for any team to dethrone the Whipsnakes but if anyone can I would bet on the Redwoods or Archers. Archers have the firepower to contest the Whips defense and keep up with their offense. The only missing component is at face-off but a trade is always possible if Stephen Kelly or rookie Connor Gaffney aren’t up to snuff. In the same vein, Atlas seem to be in sell mode so maybe the Sharpshooters can pry Trevor Baptiste away….
Game 4:
Waterdogs -1.5 vs Cannons +1.5
Consensus: The Lettuce Discuss crew were split down the middle on this game but I think if you were to ask most they would side with the Waterdogs in this match up. Arguably no team improved on paper as much as the Pups this off-season. They maximized every outlet available in order to upgrade their roster and did so masterfully. Last year, the Dogs had talent and versatility but lacked scheme and specified roles, along with a consistent goalie. That changed over the off-season. The Good Boys vastly upgraded their defense with the additions of Liam Byrnes, Ben Randall, Eli Gobrecht and goalie Dillon Ward. They didn’t stop there though, the offense should also be noticeably better with the trade acquisition of prolific goal-scorer Ryan Brown, and the drafting of Michael Sowers. Sowers was one of the best players in college last year and easily could have gone first overall. His presence at the X will be a huge boost. Waterdogs also essentially got another first round pick as their 2020 first-round selection, Michael Kraus, joins the team after electing to play for his hometown MLL team last year. Brown Kraus, and Sowers will allow Connor Kelly to move to a more natural position at midfield to join up with Zach Currier, Ryan Conrad, and Drew Snider. Speaking of Currier, this will be the first time that PLL fans will really get to appreciate the 1st overall pick of the 2020 Entry Draft. Currier was concussed early in his first game in the bubble and never really got going after that. Now at full-health the midfield unit lead by Currier just might be the best in the league. With so many additions and upgrades, the Pups are favored here against the new Cannons.
Dissent: If anyone knows how hard it is to win as an expansion team in this league it is the Waterdogs so the Cannons being 1.5 underdogs isn’t a surprise. However, the Cannons built their roster to compete right away and showed that in Game 1 against the Redwoods. I like the Boomers to win this straight up, but wish the line paid better than -113 (coincidentally, the Dogs are also -113 money line as the favorites). A resurgent Paul Rabil and a solid attack group with Lyle Thompson, Andrew Kew, and Ryan Drenner helped build a late lead for the Cannons. The Redwoods ended up storming back but that’s been their calling card. I don’t see the Waterdogs having that same fortitude or explosiveness out the gates and I also don’t see them winning 78% of face-offs as TD Ierlan did. The Cannons rarely turned the ball over against an excellent Woods defense and if they can get some extra possessions coming from even an average showing at the stripe then I think they’ll spoil the Waterdogs’ 2021 debut.
My Final Prediction: Playing in a second game of the weekend isn’t going to be that much of a hindrance. It’s early in the season and these Cannons are excellent athletes even if Rabil and Merrill are getting longer in the tooth. Ryan Drenner will record a hat trick in a revenge game against his former team and the Cannons will nab a hard fought first W in their short PLL history. Final: 12-11 Cannons
Favorite Futures Bet: Nothing jumps out to me as a great value for either of these teams for futures. If DraftKings was offering a Rookie of the Year future I would definitely back Michael Sowers as I think he can have a Grant Ament type impact from day-one. If I had to choose one though, getting Zach Currier to win the MVP at +2000 is enticing. He will rack up the points and showcase why he was chosen #1 a year ago. That said, not sure his team will win enough for him to take the hardware home.
Game 5:
Redwoods -1.5 vs Chrome +1.5
Consensus: The three other members of Lettuce Discuss are rolling with the Woods in this match up and based on Friday with good reason. Redwoods started slow in their game against Cannons as they are known to do, but a great 2nd quarter and a late 4th quarter explosion propelled the Trees to a win. Pannell settled in nicely with a 4-point outing, Tim Troutner had a strong showing making 19 saves (at a 63% clip), and Garrett Epple had a great showing with 3 caused turnovers and 2 ground balls. But the most impressive aspects of the Redwoods game was definitely TD Ierlan and Myles Jones. Ierlan (in his rookie debut!) dominated at the stripe, winning 21-27 chances and Myles Jones utilized his freak size and athleticism. At 6-5 and 260 lbs there’s not many players who can match up with the former Duke Blue Devil. Jones has never been questioned for his skill set but his consistency hasn’t been where it should at times. On Friday, Jones overpowered defenders and showcased his athleticism on a leaping crease dive, where he landed on the other side of the circle.
Dissent: I was the only one to pick against the Woods covering this line and I made that decision prior to seeing them play on Friday. However, I’m going to stick with the pick. Yes, at time the Woods looked incredibly impressive but they also got beat out the gates and then let the Cannons go on a 5-goal run. The Redwoods make it difficult to get a lot of entry passes in but Jordan Wolf and the rest of the high-powered Chrome can win 1v1 match ups. Chrome probably had the quietest off-season of any team and their number one acquisition, Randy Staats, is injured. But Wolf, Justin Guterding, Matt Gaudet, and Jordan MacIntosh will strike fear into just about any opponent as is.
My Final Prediction: The Redwoods love playing in close games and I expect this one to be similar. The Chrome got the best of the Woods last year after a loss of composure and focusing too much on punishing the mouthy Gaudet. I’m excited to see how that plays out again this year. Ierlan won’t have as much success against Conner Farrell as he did against the Cannons, I expect the rookie to pretty much split evenly with the Milkman. Final: 14-13 Redwoods
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