PLL Betting: Week 2

Last Week’s Betting Results:

• Doc: 4-1
• Swoop: 4-1
• Rosty: 3-2
• TB: 2-3

Analysis:

Yes, I’m bringing up the rear so far in the standings but I did go perfect in picking game-winners. If you were to bet all of this week’s games on the money line it would pay out at +660. I’ll take that! Also congrats to Doc and Swoop for going 4-1. I guess. Whatever.

Waterdogs v Chaos (-1.5)

Overview:

I don’t believe either team is as bad as they showed in Week 1 but they certainly disappointed in their 2021 debut. Both teams have a chance to show that their performance on opening weekend was an aberration and bounce back with multiple games this week, including this Friday Night Face-Off.

Consensus:

The Whipsnakes can make basically any team in the league look bad, especially when they bring their A game. The Chaos were the most recent victims of this and were blitzed out the gate. However, the Chaos showed signs of life in the second half and Blaze Riorden put in a solid showing despite a lack of help from his defense. Yes, he let in 12 goals (including a 2-pointer) but he only let two get behind him in the second half. He also managed to stop 19 shots on net for a very respectable 61% save-percentage. The Chaos defense did Riorden no favors and let the Whips get off 49 shots including 31 on goal, both of which were the weekend highs for a single game.

Unfortunately, this is nothing new for the Chaos as they lead the league in 2020 in shots-against and SOG-against. Their defense is far too reliant on a Blaze Bailout and it will need to be fixed if they plan on having a return trip to the championship. Enter the Waterdogs, who coincidentally were last in shots and SOG for the bubble. Those same issues plagued them in Week 1 as well. Their offense never looked comfortable against the Cannons, including when they were on the power play. They were way too vanilla in their scheme and you simply can’t take a shot clock violation while being a man-up.

Chaos also had issues at times on the offensive side of the field. They could really never get Josh Byrne going and furthermore, first-round pick and NCAA all-time leader in goals, Mac O’Keefe was largely invisible in his PLL debut. Luckily for both of them they wont be facing the Whips defense, lead by Michael Ehrhardt and Matt Dunn, again this season. On the plus side, the trade acquisition for Wes Berg seems to be paying immediate dividends. The Canadian joined honorary Team Canada and thrived in his first game among his fellow countrymen. Berg will get a chance to show the Pups they never should have included him in the deal for goalie Dillon Ward.

Dissent (From Rosty):

I’m here to defend the pups and their outlook for the weekend. The game against the Chaos is their first chance at a bounce back after the embarrassing loss dealt by the Cannons.

To look for some optimism, we should first look at what went wrong in game one. Unfortunately, just about everything. The offense lacked creativity and there was no penetration towards the net while sending cutters. When your top scorer is an SSDM you know you’re having offensive issue. The Pups attack, despite an influx of talent, looked too reminiscent of their bubble performance and just looked lost at times. Defensively, they weren’t much better. The Good Boys were over-matched by Lyle Thompson alone and also couldn’t stay with Kew or Rabil on cuts. They s had problems with switches, slides, and just about everything that would give Dillon Ward a chance in net.

My dissenting opinion as the lone Waterdogs pick in our ATS pool, was based on the belief that the Waterdogs won’t get worse in a get-right game against the porous Chaos defense. I think the Pups offense will begin to score. They will highlight the addition of Ryan Brown, and utilize Michael Kraus (the MLL draft and stash) as the Sowers replacement who can play meaningful minutes as a physical dodger to help create space and break the Chaos defense.

I count on the Pups to cover the spread in a tough losing effort as Blaze Riorden stays Blaze Riorden. The Waterdogs will lose but they cover +1.5

My Final Prediction:

Rookie Michael Sowers was the Dogs lone spark from an attack standpoint, but he is out with a concussion for the weekend. Without Sowers I just don’t see how the Waterdogs keep pace in this game. Look for a bounce-back game from Byrnes and I think Berg will continue his hot streak against his former team. I also expect O’Keefe to get on the board in this game. He was held scoreless only once while at Penn State and I can’t imagine he’ll make it two-in-a-row for the PLL, he’s too talented offensively. I think he scores twice including one from long-range. Chaos win 14-8

Cannons v Whipsnakes (-1.5)

Overview:

This is the marquee match-up of the weekend featuring some of the game’s biggest stars and best players. It pits the two reigning champions of the MLL and PLL and should be an electric game with great plays and play-makers up and down the field. If you can only watch one game this weekend I would urge you to make it this one.

Consensus:

The Cannons burst onto the scene in a major way last weekend . They took the Redwoods down to the wire and easily handled the Waterdogs to get their first PLL victory. Lyle Thompson showcased why he is widely considered the best player in the world and introduced PLL fans to his patented backhand finish, along with an array of other acrobatic scores. Other standouts from last weekend included: Paul Rabil’s resurgence, Zach Goodrich’ defensive wizardry at SSDM, and Andrew Kew’s shooting prowess.

All of the aforementioned players will be put to the test this weekend against the Whips. The Snakes are coming off back-to-back championships and only appear to be getting better. They dismantled the Chaos in a rematch of the Bubble’s championship and looked dominant while doing so. Joe Nardella continued his brilliance and play-making from the stripe, Zed Williams looks stronger than he did in his MVP campaign last year, and the Whips defense continues to suffocate opponents. While the Cannons appear to be one of the top teams in the league this year, the Whipsnakes ARE the top team. Our staff picked accordingly.

Dissent (From Doc):

At a certain point all teams lose and it’s the Whips’ time, or at the very least their time not to cover the spread. The Cannons will face an uphill battle and will need to steal some possessions as they currently are worst in the league in face-offs and go up against a juggernaut in Joe Nardella this weekend. However, the Cannons have been great in forcing turnovers and can stymie the face-off differential by continuing to do so this weekend. Cannons also have an advantage of playing two games already to be fully in sync with each other and the game against the Redwoods proves they can hang in with the best. Thompson and Rabil will shoot out of the gates like a howitzer and Nick Marocco will continue his unbelievably steady performance (64% SVP). I have faith in the Boom Squad to keep this one close and even hand the Snakes their first loss in 10 tries.

Final Prediction:

The Whips get their first true test of the season and will have a much tougher time dispatching the Cannons than they did the Chaos last week. The game will have incredible match-ups at every level; Matthew Dunn and Michael Ehrhardt vs Lyle Thompson on one side and Zach Goodrich manning up against Zeddy Ballgame and Matt Rambo on the other. It will be a must watch game but Nardella will be the difference maker and give the Snakes too many possessions. Whips win 13-10.

Atlas vs Redwoods (-2.5)

Overview:

Historically these two teams have not liked each other and played in some instant classics. In Week 1 of 2019 they paired off against one another and provided a thrilling 11-9 game. The Atlas came into that season with a litany of superstars and offensive power but Tim Troutner, in his rookie debut, stood on his head to earn the Redwoods the victory. Tensions flared throughout the game and a scuffle broke out after an interaction between Troutner and Chris Cloutier, reminiscent of the Redwoods’ and Chrome’s brouhaha last weekend. So many of those early Atlas stars have moved on, meanwhile the heart of that Redwoods defense remains intact and their offense has been revitalized with some great trades. The Redwoods come into this weekend’s game flying high as the only 2-0 team in the league, meanwhile the Bulls are licking their wounds after the Archers embarrassed them in their only game so far.

Consensus:

This is one of two games this week where we have unanimity among the Lettuce Discuss crew. Honestly, after the difference in how these two teams played I thought the line might get to 3.5 so Woods at -2.5 seems like a no-brainer. Redwoods defense is still punishing and their offense looks to firing on all cylinders with the additions of RP-Tree and Ryan Lee along with getting Jules back. Meanwhile the Atlas D let the Archers get whatever they wanted and their offense just looked poor. The Bulls had by far the worst shooting percentage, 11.63% (goals per shot), and true shooting percentage, 21.74% (goals per SOG), of the opening weekend. If Woods play like they have been and the Atlas put out a similar effort this game will also get lopsided.

Dissent:

As mentioned, no one is running with the Bulls in this match up but I’ll still play devils advocate. The Atlas have given the Redwoods fits in the past. In Week 7 of 2019, the Atlas jumped out to a huge 7-0 lead and dropped 14 in the first half on the Woods, and 18 for the game. Those 18 points were the most ever given up by the Redwoods, they average only 11.74 ppg allowed for their team history, and Trouter had his worst game as a pro that day. The likes of Connor Buzcek, Ryan Brown, Cloutier, and Rabil are all gone but talent still remains. Trevor Baptiste can dictate play and possession on his own, Eric Law and Dan Bucaro remain feared attackmen, and Bryan Costabile and Romar Dennis have some of the fastest shots in the league. I would also expect a bounce-back performance by Jack Concannon between the pipes, he’s been much steadier than he showed against the Archers. If Baptiste can dominate the dot, Concannon holds his own, and the Atlas get some key shooting (especially from deep) they can keep this close.

My Final Prediction:

You’ll see at the end of that Dissent paragraphs a lot of qualifiers to make this one a game. None of them are far-fetched and blow outs are not the norm in the PLL, but I just don’t see how the Atlas hang unless the Redwoods let them. Last year, the Woods walked away with a W against the Atlas despite losing 75% of draws in the game. I don’t see TD Ierlan losing out that much and the Redwoods offense is also better than it was last year. Redwoods improve to 3-0 and win 16-9.